Cult Following — What It Will Take to Succeed Trump

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As we pointed out in the first part of this series, Republicans with presidential ambitions will soon have some tough choices to make. They first have to figure out whether they want to shoot their shot in a political environment that could be extremely tricky for the GOP. If so, they need to decide now what kind of campaign they want to run.

At the heart of this dilemma is a unique challenge facing 2028 hopefuls: To become president, they have to win the nomination of a Republican Party now dominated by MAGA extremists who remain blindly loyal to Donald Trump — who will always be a wild card in the race and will insist on picking his ostensible successor.

Of course, in reality, Trump will want to relinquish neither the presidency nor the leadership of the political juggernaut he created, so candidates will have to deal with his malignant narcissism and not just their opponents. And let’s not forget that Trump will keep hinting at staying on for an unconstitutional third term because he is nuts.

Whoever emerges from what promises to be a wild and messy primary will then have to pivot to appeal to general election voters who don’t like the president or the job he’s doing. At the same time the new Republican nominee will have to cater to the still MAGA-fied GOP base that expects them to champion all their unpopular right-wing policies.

While that does not sound like fun, it is nevertheless possible that quite a few Republicans will believe that 2028 could be their year.

One of the reasons why is JD Vance.

Normally, when you have a vice president who is so ambitious that he’ll say and do anything to get closer to power, you’d assume that he would be his party’s most likely nominee.

Not Vance, who is historically unpopular.

He may be the betting favorite at this point, but we expect that to change… and not only because Americans dislike him personally. Perhaps more importantly, he is inextricably linked to Trump.

Granted, if the president turns things around, the “golden age” begins, prices drop, the economy picks up, jobs become plentiful, the promised health care plan is passed, Greenland is annexed, Canada becomes the 51st state, and pigs fly, then Vance will likely cruise to the nomination (if Trump doesn’t insist that this success entitles him to run again) and further to the presidency.

Unfortunately for him, it doesn’t look as though that is happening.

To be fair to the vice president, he isn’t in an enviable position. While his opportunistic side may feel tempted to try to put some daylight between himself and the president, the lickspittle in him won’t allow it.

Also, let’s not forget that playing second fiddle to Trump is a thankless job and that a MAGA mob wanted to hang Vance’s predecessor.

What we are saying is that, while we expect him to run (after all, it would be a travesty if he didn’t, after going through his political emasculation for years), he is far from a sure thing.

But if not Vance, then who?

We think that, at this early stage, it’s best to look at categories of candidates rather than specific individuals, and to point out their respective opportunities and challenges.

‘The Bootlickers’ 

First, there is a group we call “the bootlickers,” which includes Vance and Secretary of State “Little Marco” Rubio, and consists of the president’s most ardent sycophants, which is really saying something. Their strategy is to inherit Trump’s mantle by burying their heads so far up his caboose that he will favor them with his endorsement. In light of the MAGA base’s total devotion to the president, that probably is the easiest way to win the primary.

There are just a couple of problems for the large group of Republicans favoring this approach. Beginning with the fact that while Trump’s derrière is large — and his desire to have it kissed endless — there isn’t room for everybody at this trough.

Therefore, it’ll be a free-for-all to secure the golden ticket of the president’s nomination — essentially The Apprentice: Oval Office Edition, which will suit Trump just fine. The candidates, however, will continuously debase themselves.

For example, the most obvious question that should (and probably will be) asked of them is: “What is one thing you would have done differently than the president?”

In 2024, Kamala Harris did not have an answer, and it hurt her.

But members of this group will have to go beyond “nothing comes to mind,” especially if Trump hasn’t endorsed yet.

So, maybe they will say that they would have fought even harder to get him the Nobel Peace Prize, or they would have named more stuff after him. Whatever their answers will be, they will be embarrassing.

Fortunately for them, after years of indulging all of the president’s whims and justifying even his most ridiculous behavior, they have no shame left.

In the end, one of them will emerge as the heir apparent to the MAGA throne. At least the bootlickers hope so. But maybe Trump won’t endorse anybody, or his favored candidate will turn out to be Don Jr. to keep the golden goose that is the Oval Office in the family.

Also, it’s important to keep in mind that some of the contestants in this macabre reality show have greater access to the president, so this approach works better for Rubio and Vance than, for example, for Sens. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Tom Cotton (R-AR).

Then again, those guys, and many others, have made their beds a long time ago and there is no turning back now.

The final challenge for the bootlickers is that their chances to win the general election are entirely dependent on Trump’s success in the next two years, which seems like quite a gamble.

Speaking of gambles, let’s look at the next set of candidates.

‘The Retropublicans’ 

These are the guys (and maybe gals) who have to do something that has proven to be nigh impossible for Republicans in recent years: They have to put some daylight between themselves and Trump to be better positioned for a general election.

This is what would happen in the primary of a party that isn’t a cult run by an insecure megalomaniac.

To give the party the best shot at retaining the White House, candidates would carve out a middle ground to generally back an unpopular incumbent while also offering some criticism and alternative policies.

For example, in this case, a Republican could praise Trump for having instituted his tariffs to “put the world on notice that the US won’t be jerked around anymore like with a Democrat in office,” but then point out that “during this time of economic uncertainty, most of them should be suspended to lower the cost of living for regular Americans.”

Or they could enthusiastically back the popular parts of the president’s immigration policies, i.e., closing the border, while condemning “individual agents who act like a deranged Rambo” and proposing some sensible measures to rein in ICE.

However, the thin-skinned Trump won’t allow any criticism and will likely lash out at any Republican who says anything negative about him.

And this makes it really difficult for someone in this group, which we refer to as “retropublicans,” to win the nomination. Their best chance is to hope that the sheer volume of bootlickers will split the MAGA vote and/or that the base is truly souring on the president.

It’s a real longshot, but there are some Republicans who might pull it off. The best example is Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who already ran against Trump once and afterwards made it back into his good graces. In addition, turning his state ruby red and putting in place many of the policies the GOP base would like to see implemented in Washington, DC, has given him real MAGA credentials.

Since he is term-limited, DeSantis can spend all of 2027 traveling the country and building a network of supporters. Still, without Trump’s endorsement, securing the nomination will be an uphill climb.

Others in this group include Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, whose term also ends at the start of next year; former Virginia Gov. Glenn Younkin; and perhaps Sen. Josh Hawley (MO), who is already trying to establish his populist bona fides in Congress.

While we believe that someone from this group would have the best chance of winning a general election, if they somehow survive the primary they will have to hurry and begin the process of separating themselves from Trump to create enough space by the end of next year to portray themselves as a legitimate alternative to him.

‘The Renegades’ 

The members of the final group are well ahead of the retropublicans because they have already drawn the president’s ire and are therefore not constrained in any way by having to cater to him.

They include media personality Tucker Carlson, former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (GA), and Rep. Thomas Massie (KY). We’ll call them the “renegades.”

We honestly have no idea whether any of them are going to run, but they could shake up a primary if Trump’s base deserts him in droves.

That’s because they actually embody the ideals that MAGA and “America First” are supposed to represent. Trump, on the other hand, has abandoned many of them.

By the way, one potential candidate we couldn’t neatly classify is Sen. Rand Paul (KY), who is both a renegade and a retropublican.

So, what do we think is the most promising path for any Republicans who hope to be president? To be honest, it might just be to sit out this cycle, watch a bunch of potential rivals beat each other up, see one of them lose the general election, and then try in 2032, when Trump’s shadow no longer looms as large.

Of course, we hope that none of the above heed that advice and instead join the 2028 race and make it one of the most entertaining primaries in history.