After Him, the Deluge: Trump Creates a Tough Environment for GOP’s 2028 Hopefuls

Listen To This Story

The race for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination is shaping up to be one of the most fascinating, crazy, and entertaining primaries in recent memory, and anybody who thinks that they can divine at this stage what might happen will likely be completely wrong. So, naturally, we’re going to give it a try.

Obviously, we first have to mention the usual disclaimer, i.e., that a lot can happen in the intervening two years. 

Maybe the mentally ill incumbent will run for a constitutionally prohibited third term and all Republicans will just stand by and pretend this is a great idea.

Perhaps the most likely scenario that would void everything we are about to say would be if Donald Trump were unable to serve out his term. After all, he is no spring chicken, and, even though he can correctly point out a giraffe from a lineup of animals, the golden chandelier is clearly missing a few candles already.

In addition, you cannot rule out the (admittedly remote) possibility of impeachment, the invocation of the 25th Amendment, or another felony conviction.

However, let’s assume that things will basically continue as they are, which doesn’t bode well at all.

Most importantly, economic warning signs are flashing all over the place.

Last week, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index hit a record low, and the administration announced that inflation jumped 0.9 percent to 3.3 percent in March, which is higher than when Trump took office. And, as you may recall, he had promised to bring down prices on day one of his second term.

Obviously, that hasn’t happened. Contrary to the president’s claims, there is no “golden age,” and prices aren’t coming down. In fact, Trump’s tariffs and the war with Iran, even if it is resolved quickly, will ensure that Americans continue to to pay more for everything from gasoline to food for some time.

Therefore, it is hardly surprising that they are blaming the president and the GOP for the economic mess.

About two-thirds of them believe that Trump’s policies have made things worse. If a substantial share of the population hadn’t developed a cultish devotion to the president, that number would be even higher.

And that brings us to what will make this primary one of a kind.

First, we have to look at the political environment in which potential Republican candidates have to decide whether they want to compete for the 2028 nomination and what kind of race they want to run.

It’s complicated.

To become president, they first have to convince GOP voters, who are (still) rabidly pro-Trump, to choose them as their candidate in the primary. More than likely, this will require staying on the president’s good side or he will torpedo their campaign.

Then, once they have won the nomination, they have to pivot and, while remaining in Trump’s good graces, convince the American people that they will not continue his unpopular policies — even though they will also be forced to enthusiastically endorse them on the campaign trail to avoid making the thin-skinned commander in chief mad.

A new poll illustrates how daunting that challenge is. It shows that the only group that still approves of the job the president is doing is dyed-in-the-wool Republicans, i.e., the voters a candidate needs to secure the nomination.

Everybody else disapproves of him. Take whites without a college education. When he was elected to his second term, Trump enjoyed a 34-percent edge among that voting bloc, and any Republican hoping to prevail in 2028 will need to win this demographic decisively. Right now, however, the president is underwater with even these voters.

It’s a dilemma congressional Republicans know only too well.

They are heading for a massive defeat in the midterms because Trump, who isn’t even on the ballot, is highly unpopular.

However, because they are subservient to the president, have abdicated their constitutional role, and have allowed Trump to turn their party into his personal cult, there is nothing GOP candidates can do about it.

They hitched their car to his MAGA train, and if he drives it off a cliff, they are going along for the ride (or, of course, they can leave Congress, which a record number of them are doing because they can see the writing on the wall).

What makes things even worse for them is that the man to whom their political fate is tied doesn’t appear to care about governing all that much, doesn’t have a plan for the country or the party, and has shown very little interest in improving the lives of regular Americans (especially when it comes to those who didn’t vote for him).

Instead, when he isn’t wielding the powers of the presidency like a two-bit mobster, Trump seems most concerned with enriching himself and cementing his legacy (or what he envisions that to be).

That means that he is invested a lot more in grandiose ballrooms and putting his name on stuff than addressing affordability and getting Republicans elected in the fall.

For the GOP, that’s a recipe for disaster, and we expect that the Republicans on the ballot this fall will pay the price for Trump’s narcissistic frivolity and indifference to the plight of working families. We just witnessed in Hungary what happens when a country mired in an economic crisis gets fed up with the cronyism and corruption of an authoritarian ruler.

So, assuming that the GOP gets crushed in November because the American people have once again grown tired of Trump and his endless drama (as they did in 2020 when he failed them during another crisis, the COVID pandemic), what will Republicans with presidential ambitions do then?

What looks like the most likely scenario right now raises a lot of fascinating questions:  

Who will throw his or her hat in the ring in 2026-7, and who has a realistic chance of winning the nomination? Can anybody inherit the cult (and will the president allow it)? How much room is there in the MAGA lane? In anticipation of how toxic Trump might be by 2028, who will start speaking out against him now and position themselves as a traditional conservative counterweight? Should strong contenders sit out the current cycle entirely and run in a year that looks better for Republicans?

We will examine all of these questions (and more) in part two of our 2028 GOP primary preview.