Marco Rubio Soft-Shoes His Way Through the Trump Minefield

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As President Donald Trump desperately tries to escape the mess he has created in Iran and the blocked Strait of Hormuz, Secretary of State Marco Rubio is fast emerging as the most promising Republican candidate for the 2028 presidential election.  

Vice President JD Vance briefly looked the part, and he derived some credit from acting as Trump’s ever-ready attack dog. But Vance has also revealed himself to be politically tone-deaf, and his close identification with Trump means that he’s likely to be tainted along with Trump by the looming disaster in Iran.

In contrast, Rubio has emerged as a man for all seasons, the fixer who solves problems and puts the pieces back together after Trump has blown them apart. 

Mr. Indispensible

Rubio long came across as Trump’s lackey who had no thoughts of his own. But as Trump discarded one figure after another, Rubio showed staying power and took on more and more government functions. He is the first secretary of state since Henry Kissinger to also act as the president’s national security advisor. 

While Trump’s Cabinet picks have disgraced themselves one after another, Rubio has emerged relatively unscathed. 

Rubio’s inoffensive, faceless presence initially seemed to betoken an absence of character. In retrospect, it may have been the wisest course of action. Observing Trump, Rubio has also managed to get a master’s degree on what not to do as president. He has been treated to a unique insider’s vision of just how the presidency functions and where it is likely to go wrong. 

While Trump’s Cabinet picks have disgraced themselves one after another, Rubio has emerged relatively unscathed. 

That can’t be said for “Secretary of War” Pete Hegseth, whose unreal notions about the role of the “warrior” and the value of “shock and awe” fireworks in Iran raise serious questions about whether he briefed Trump sufficiently on the dangers of starting a war of choice. As Trump tries to declare victory and abandon Iran, America, and its allies to their fate, Hegseth’s mindless, blood-spattered cheerleader approach looks more and more like a liability. 

The same goes for Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, who was supposedly overseeing US intelligence agencies but failed to stand up to Trump about the lack of an immediate Iranian nuclear threat or to fully enumerate the dangers of going to war. As for former Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, she has already mercifully been forgotten. Ditto for Elon Musk, the man who almost single-handedly decimated the US civil service, which plays a critically important role in keeping the country running smoothly.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s contention that the economy is doing just great — despite rising gasoline prices, a suddenly nervous stock market, and bad employment and inflation trends — is also likely to disappear down a memory sinkhole. 

That leaves Rubio as virtually the last man standing. But while he looks to be the best of the lot, the road to the presidency is hardly paved smooth.

A Birthright Citizen in a Xenophobic Maelstrom

Rubio’s knottiest problem is likely to be Trump’s extreme measures against immigration. The Department of Homeland Security brags that it has deported some 605,000 immigrants since January 2025. Another 2 million have left the country “voluntarily,” some paid to go, most because of DHS intimidation or simply because Trump has created a climate that no one wants to live in even when the alternative is hellacious. More than half the immigrants in America today are from Latin America, and more than half of those are from Mexico.

According to the Pew Research Center, the overall immigrant population today stands at a little more than 15 percent of the total population. In 1885, when Trump’s grandfather emigrated to the US, immigrants similarly represented nearly 15 percent.    

Marco Rubio was born in Miami in 1971. His parents were not citizens at the time, so Rubio is an American citizen thanks to the birthright clause in the US Constitution. That is the same clause that Trump and right-wing Republicans are currently trying to eliminate and which is now being argued before the Supreme Court.

Although Rubio’s family emigrated to Florida two years before the mass migration that followed Fidel Castro’s takeover of Cuba, Rubio has to contend with the fact that many people of Hispanic origin consider the Cubans who fled from Castro a case apart from other Latin Americans.

Roughly 500,000 Cubans fled to Miami after Castro’s takeover. Many were well-educated and belonged to the upper and middle classes. They formed a politically conservative bloc and, in some cases, showed little respect for other Latin American immigrants, particularly those coming from Mexico. 

They also found themselves competing for jobs with Florida’s Black population, whom they often looked down on despite the fact that, because of slavery, most African Americans have roots in America that predate recent immigrants by a century or more. The massive Cuban immigration into Florida, in short, effectively pitted one ethnic group against another. 

When it comes to politics, that alone would be hard to overcome. The excesses of the anti-inclusion, anti-immigration MAGA politics that Trump has promoted create an even greater problem for Rubio. 

Whether Cuban, Mexican, or Central American, nearly all Latin Americans are family-oriented.  The connection to aunts, uncles, cousins, and other relatives means that although many Latin Americans are fully legal American citizens, most have relatives who are not. Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s harsh treatment — not to mention the gleeful cruelty that Trump appointees such as Stephen Miller and the now-sidelined Noem have employed against undocumented immigrants — is likely to be felt by numerous American citizens whose undocumented members of their extended families have suffered under Trump.  

Add to that the fact that, although Americans of European descent, Trump included, may see Latin Americans as interlopers, many Latin Americans do not see it that way. 

Anyone who has Hispanic heritage knows that the US took territory from Mexico by force in the 1846–48 Mexican-American War. At the time, the US justified its land grab by calling its seizure of Mexican territory “Manifest Destiny.” Today, the same territory, once part of Mexico, has arguably been experiencing Manifest Destiny in reverse, as Latin American immigrants cross the border and inhabit territory once claimed by their forefathers. 

Americans who trace their heritage to Europe and those who consider themselves to be Latin Americans have a very different perspective on the current struggle over immigration. If Rubio still wants to run for president, he will have to resolve these conflicts. 

Given the mess that Trump has now created in Iran, Rubio may be the last existing lifeline for the survival of both Trump and the Republican Party. 

So far, he has shown remarkable skill in resolving problems created by Trump, all the while maintaining a working relationship — no easy task. 

Trump has made it clear that he is ready to throw anyone under the bus if that’s what it takes to stay on top. Under ordinary circumstances, he might be tempted to discard Rubio as a potential competitor, but the circumstances are no longer ordinary. 

Given the mess that Trump has now created in Iran, Rubio may be the last existing lifeline for the survival of both Trump and the Republican Party. 

That said, there is a big difference between becoming a presidential nominee — of a party dragged down by the dismal performance in office of its previous presidential nominee — and being elected. 

William Dowell is WhoWhatWhy’s editor for international coverage. He previously worked for NBC and ABC News in Paris before signing on as a staff correspondent for Time magazine based in Cairo. He has reported from five continents — most notably during the Vietnam War, the revolution in Iran, the civil war in Beirut, Operation Desert Storm, and in Afghanistan.