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In recent years, House Republicans have consistently demonstrated an impressive ability to mess up end-of-year negotiations on funding bills that would prevent government shutdowns (that the GOP would inevitably get blamed for).
This year, they are off to a good start to keep that stellar record intact.
On Wednesday, House Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-LA) brilliant plan of trying to pass a continuing resolution (CR) that has no chance of becoming law was foiled by his own party, therefore placing the GOP in a position of weakness ahead of the inevitable negotiations with Senate Democrats and the White House.
Johnson wanted to couple a six-month CR with the infamous SAVE Act, a voter suppression bill cloaked as a measure nobody needs.
However, 14 Republicans voted against the legislation while only three Democrats supported it. This outcome was hardly surprising, which makes it even more baffling that Johnson went ahead with the vote.
This defeat has significantly weakened his negotiating position, which wasn’t all that strong to begin with.
Now, there are two likely scenarios.
The first is that, after negotiations with the Senate and the White House, House Democrats have to help Johnson pass a compromise that will favor them.
In the process, the Speaker will upset his base and put his own job on the line (if not this year, then after the election).
The alternative is that Republicans will once again shut down the government.
And Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), perhaps the GOP’s most savvy negotiator, knows exactly how that will play out seven weeks ahead of an election.
“My only observation about this whole discussion is the one thing you cannot have is a government shutdown,” he told reporters. “It would be politically beyond stupid for us to do that right before the election, because certainly we’d get the blame.”
This is one issue on which Democrats and Republicans agree.
“Leader McConnell is absolutely correct,” said Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY). “A Republican shutdown would be beyond stupid for Republicans and they would get the blame, because it’s only Speaker Johnson who’s headed in that direction to assuage his hard-right, the Freedom Caucus people, who say it’s questionable whether he should be Speaker if this happens.”
What complicates matters for Johnson and the House GOP is that Donald Trump wants them to shut down the government.
“If Republicans don’t get the SAVE Act, and every ounce of it, they should not agree to a Continuing Resolution in any way, shape, or form,” Trump wrote on his social media platform.
The former president went on to falsely claim that “tens of thousands” of “illegal voters” will cast their ballots in the upcoming election.
In addition to being an evidence-free statement, since voting has already begun, the provisions of the SAVE Act could not possibly apply to this election even if it were signed into law (which it will not be).
With less than two weeks to go before a CR must be passed, this would be entertaining to watch… if a shutdown would not cause all kinds of hardships and inconveniences for millions of Americans.
But that is undoubtedly something Johnson and Trump have considered when they hatched this masterful plan.
