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In basketball, there is an adage that “ball don’t lie,” which means that any shot that results in a basket is, by definition, a good shot. When it comes to political betting markets, it would be fair to say that “money don’t lie.” People make their wagers based on what they think will happen, not any kind of spin.
And, on the morning after the first presidential debate, the smart money is on Joe Biden not winning the 2024 presidency. In fact, bettors increasingly don’t even think that he will head the Democratic ticket this fall.
Prior to Thursday night’s debate, we checked out the odds for various candidates on Polymarket, which allows people to bet on politics, including on who will prevail in this November’s election.
Obviously, Donald Trump and Biden were most likely to win, with the Republican being a favorite over the Democrat.
And then there was a smattering of potential candidates from both parties who might step in if one of the presumptive nominees stepped down or were incapacitated for some reason.
These included Republicans like former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, as well as Democrats like Vice President Kamala Harris, Hillary Clinton, and Michelle Obama.
In addition, there was an option for “another Democrat” and “another Republican” in case a bettor thought that none of the listed individuals would win.
On Thursday, the odds for “another Republican” was about 200 to 1, meaning that a bet of $50 would result in a return of $10,000. That number remains essentially unchanged 24 hours later.
It’s a far different story on the Democratic side… and the change shows just how poorly Biden did at the debate.
On Thursday, if you bet $50 on “another Democrat,” you’d get back $6,500. On Friday morning, that return on investment had plummeted to $1,000.
In addition, the stock of all named Democrats has soared.
Bettors now think that California Gov. Gavin Newsom has a 6 percent chance to be the next US president. Harris and Obama come in at 4 percent respectively. Add to that the figures for “another Democrat” and individuals like Clinton, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (MA), Bernie Sanders (I-VT), and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (NY), and bettors think it is now just about as likely that Biden will get reelected as it is that he will be replaced at the top of the ticket.
It seems likely that this trend is going to continue, and it not only reflects the belief of people voting with their wallets that Biden not only won’t win in November but also that he is going to drop out to make way for another Democrat.
