Trump Will Try to Steal the Midterms; Let’s Plan Accordingly

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There are plenty of people, including so-called experts, who cling to the hope that the upcoming midterms will resemble a fair election. That is not only naïve but, more importantly, dangerous. 

So, let’s get one thing out of the way: Donald Trump will try to steal the midterms. And, if Republicans lose control of either chamber of Congress, he won’t accept the outcome.

And, quite frankly, anybody who thinks otherwise is a fool.

Now, if you are one of the people who believe that the guardrails that Trump has been ignoring and dismantling will hold, you may ask: What makes you so certain?

Well, first of all, the president keeps telling us that he is going to do it — both indirectly and directly. 

He has mused about canceling the midterms, seemed envious that Ukraine wouldn’t hold elections while at war, and recently said that “we shouldn’t even have an election.” In addition, keep in mind that every one of Trump’s accusations is either an admission of guilt of something he has already done or a declaration of something he would like to do in the future. 

So, whenever he talks about how Democrats “rigged” this or that — without ever presenting any evidence — you have to understand that he is trying to figure out how he can do the same. 

If you are still skeptical, then you might argue that the president is all talk. After all, Canada still isn’t a state, Greenland hasn’t been invaded, and, in any case, the White House said the famously hilarious Trump was just joking when he said there shouldn’t be an election.

Fair enough.

Of course, he has already tried to steal an election that he lost. We all were there for it. 

Joe Biden cleaned his clock by more than seven million votes in 2020, and Trump responded by attempting a coup that culminated in the violent attack on Congress on January 6. He got indicted for it. 

In fact, when former special counsel Jack Smith testified before the House this week, Republicans focused almost entirely on the technicalities of the probe and not the underlying crimes that it uncovered. 

It is also noteworthy that, while punishing FBI agents and prosecutors who investigated him and his henchmen, Trump pardoned the people who stormed the Capitol and attacked cops on his behalf, as well as his underlings who participated in the coup. 

The message is clear: Help me steal an election, and you don’t have to fear punishment. 

That, of course, also raises the stakes for those doing his bidding because their own freedom is on the line. 

Now, let’s say you are living under a rock or in a state of denial, and you still don’t acknowledge that Trump’s own statements and his past actions conclusively prove that he will try to steal the midterms and/or won’t accept an adverse result.

Maybe you believe that he has been chastened (and not emboldened) by the fact that he got away with an attempted coup the last time around — even though the president expressed regret this month that he didn’t order the National Guard in 2020 to seize voting machines.  

Or maybe you think that the loyalists he has surrounded himself with in his second term will counsel restraint. 

In that case, allow us to offer a third prong in our argument that Trump will rig the midterms: He is already doing it.  

Whether it’s through mid-decade gerrymandering, trying to wrestle control of elections away from the states, weakening existing safeguards, changing vote-by-mail rules, or demanding that states hand over their voter rolls, the president and his allies — specifically Republicans in Congress and in the states, as well as the right-wing Supreme Court majority — are working hard to ensure that the upcoming election will take place on an uneven playing field.

And those efforts could be turbo-charged by the passage of the SAVE Act.

As we have pointed out repeatedly, this legislation is a major voter suppression tool. 

If there is one piece of legislation that exemplifies today’s Republicans, then it is the SAVE Act. It is based on an unproven conspiracy theory, its stated purpose is obsolete, it does a bunch of stuff that would help the GOP suppress votes, and it is a perfect prop for demagoguery and xenophobia.

If you are unfamiliar with the SAVE Act, it is the legislation that makes something that is already illegal just as illegal.

Sounds dumb? Well, it is.

To understand what the SAVE Act does, you have to think about it along the lines of a bill that would make it unlawful for Americans to kill each other while also creating loopholes for states to murder minorities.

There is just one key difference: Murder is actually a thing that happens. The SAVE Act, which makes it illegal (again) for noncitizens to vote, addresses a problem that does not exist.

Spurred on by the GOP’s sugardaddy Elon Musk and other far-right influencers, Republicans will try to jam the original SAVE Act, or an even worse version of it, through Congress before the election — the plan being to get around a certain Democratic filibuster by attaching SAVE to a piece of must-pass legislation. 

In combination, all of these efforts — from voter roll purges and ID requirements that millions of Americans can’t meet, to closing polling places on college campuses and changes to the rules of how the United States Postal Service postmarks mail-in ballots — amount to a Jim Crowesque voter disenfranchisement effort. 

Simply put, the goal is to ensure that voting is made as difficult as possible for anybody who is more likely to vote for a Democrat than a Republican.

And, of course, if it all fails and Americans’ unhappiness with the administration’s policies sweeps the GOP out of power, then Trump and his supporters have already laid the groundwork for disputing the results by undermining the integrity of US elections for years. 

So, yes, they will absolutely try to steal the midterms, and everybody — from election administrators to Democratic lawmakers and voters themselves — should act accordingly. 

Those in the first two categories should not assume that these midterms will be “business as usual.” Instead, they should expect the worst type of interference from the federal government that they can imagine and use that as a starting point. 

Because Trump won’t just use the regular ways to try to steal an election that will determine whether he can turn the US into a fascist state unimpeded or whether Congress will stop his agenda, provide actual oversight, and, in all likelihood, impeach him again.

Therefore, election administrators and Democratic officials have to think outside the box (in this case, “the box” means “outside the Constitution, existing laws, and the tools Republicans normally use to suppress votes”). 

What will they do when troops show up on Election Day? What if he uses some kind of fake emergency to suspend mail service? How will they respond to violence he incites at polling locations? 

And they have to keep in mind that there are no bounds to what that may look like. For example, on the day that federal officers executed another American citizen on the streets of Minneapolis, Attorney General Pam Bondi sent a letter to Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) in which she said that ICE would leave his state if, among a couple of other demands, he allowed DOJ access to its voter rolls.

We’ll have more to say later on ways Trump will try to cheat and steal to maintain the GOP’s congressional majority. 

For now, however, assuming that you fall in the last category, here is what you can do: 

First of all, don’t despair. This is really important. 

Voter disenfranchisement also means voter discouragement and disillusionment.  

If you take the proper steps, you can protect your right to vote; it just may be more difficult this year. 

Specifically, that means verifying that you are registered to vote. Remember: Just because you think you are registered to vote doesn’t mean that you are (anymore). Make sure that the registration is up to date.

If mail-in voting is an option where you live, submit your ballot at least two weeks before Election Day. 

Get anybody who isn’t ok with what is happening to the country, including those who have “checked out” of politics, to register to vote. 

Call your senators and tell them to stop the SAVE Act from passing. 

See if you can work as a volunteer on Election Day… Thousands of Trump supporters are. 

Share this information with your friends and family.

And keep following WhoWhatWhy, for example by signing up for one of our newsletters. 

Election integrity will be a central focus of our coverage this year, so check in periodically to see what are the latest ploys to steal the midterms and what you can do to fight back.