To Blow Out the GOP in the Midterms, Democrats Have to Develop a Winning Message

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Politics isn’t a game, so we usually try to stay away from sports analogies. However, with the nation still gripped in football fever, we thought this would be a good time to look at the state of play for Democrats and Republicans as they are heading toward their Super Bowl — the midterm elections on November 3.

Right now, everything is going the Democrats’ way.

Team GOP is in disarray. Its superstar quarterback has lost a step (and a few marbles). However, because he has carried the Republicans to a couple of major victories, nobody dares to say out loud that he has become a liability with his constant fumbles, poor play-calling, off-field controversies, and a focus on personal glory instead of team success.

That is why, instead of Team GOP using its built-in advantages to eke out another win, it is headed for a crushing defeat, especially because all of the intangibles are pointing the Democrats’ way.

To stick with the analogy, Republicans are a passing team; their quarterback likes to just sling the ball around. But they are facing a heavy headwind in all four quarters, and the spectators are making this a home game for their rivals.

Therefore, it’s no wonder that the GOP wants to bribe the refs, use soldiers to keep the Democrats’ fans from the stadium, and maybe invoke the Insurrection Act to take control of the scoreboard.

Well, as you can tell, we have clearly taken this analogy about as far as it can go.

The point is that, as things stand right now, the Democrats are heavily favored to be the big winners this fall.

The most important indicator is that voters are deeply dissatisfied with the direction of the country. The main reason is that an economy that seems to work just fine for the wealthy is leaving most folks behind.

Working families are getting crushed by high prices for everything from groceries to rent and utilities. The jobs market is anemic, and, while Republicans passed a tax cut last year, it mainly benefits the richest Americans and is being paid for by cuts to things like rural health care, Medicaid, and food assistance.

And, instead of focusing on the affordability crisis that regular people are experiencing (or even acknowledging it), Donald Trump, who promised that he would make everything better, is exacerbating it with his tariffs (which are essentially a sales tax on imported goods like inexpensive clothing)… all while claiming that things are going great and the US has entered a golden age.

That might be true for the president’s family, which is engaged in unprecedented levels of grifting, and perhaps for the tech bros who want to replace American workers with robots and artificial intelligence, but it’s at best fool’s gold for everybody who isn’t an “-aire.”  

Adding to the president’s (and the GOP’s) woes is that this discontentment is not limited to the economy.

The immigration issue, which used to be a strength for Republicans, has become a liability as Americans daily witness the brutality of government agents, which has led to the killing of two citizens.

And it’s not just the actions of some masked goons but also the reaction of senior administration officials and GOP lawmakers who are clearly lying to the American people about the horrific cellphone footage they have seen with their own eyes.

In addition, there is the inescapable sense that Trump’s priorities are completely out of step with those of voters. His focus is on picking fights with the rest of the world, building his ballroom, securing the Nobel Peace Prize by whatever means necessary, putting his name on stuff, and making bizarre social media posts.

While the general chaos he introduces might be entertaining when things are going well, it gets old really quickly when they are not. We saw that in his first term when Americans put up with Trump’s antics until the pandemic hit and the country began yearning for a leader rather than a clown.

Finally, the administration is really bungling the Epstein matter, which is the one issue on which it has managed to alienate even some members of its base.

For all of these reasons (and more), the Democrats are heavily favored to win control of the House. But not only that. Nine months out from the midterms, the Senate is very much in play as well. In a fair fight, we believe that, at the very least, they are more likely than not to narrow the GOP’s 53-47 edge in the upper chamber of Congress and may just win it outright.

Now, an astute reader will notice two things.

First of all, there is the reference to a “fair fight.” As we have pointed out repeatedly, Trump and his Republicans are already in the process of trying to rig the midterms, so we already know that the “fairness” of the election is up for grabs.

And polls show that the GOP is facing the kind of shellacking that can’t be gerrymandered away and only a straight-up and very apparent election theft can prevent.

How bad will it be? Well, that depends on the Democrats.

And that is the second thing you may have noticed. All of the above is about Trump’s unpopularity, ineptitude, corruption, etc., and not about the Democrats’ candidates and message.

Or, to briefly go back to our sports analogy, Team Blue isn’t expected to win because its players are good, its strategy is brilliant, or its fans will carry it to victory. Instead, it’s expected to win even though most of its players are old, its playbook is antiquated, and its supporters only bother to show up for the game because they loathe the Red Team so much.

In other words, right now, this election is (once again) all about Trump. And while that looks as though it will be enough for the Republicans to lose it, it would be much better if the Democrats could win it.

But that would require them to pick the best candidates in the upcoming primaries and come up with an actual message that goes beyond, “Trump is really bad.”

For as poorly as the GOP is doing, at least Republicans can always count on their base (apart from when they cover up for pedophiles). That’s not the case for the Democrats. They are extremely unpopular with their own voters because they seem to be so feckless.

While their supporters are literally risking their lives out in the streets, most Democratic office holders can, at best, muster some tweets, angry speeches, and strongly worded letters.

To get their own base back on their side, they have to show they are willing to fight — right now, as a fired-up opposition, and then, if returned to power, by working hard to clean up the messes left by Trump and his self-serving acolytes.

But to really turn the midterms into a blowout, and make it impossible for Trump to steal the election, Democrats have to attract independents and win back working-class families that were seduced by the president’s lies.

And that requires a positive agenda centered around affordability.

What, exactly, is their plan to solve those kitchen table issues that voters are most concerned about? How are they going to stop the decades-long redistribution of wealth from regular Americans to the billionaire class? What will they do about corporate greed? How are they going to fix the social safety net that Republicans are shredding?

Part of their platform also has to be how they are going to curb Trump’s authoritarian ambitions, his attacks on democracy, and his assault on the rule of law.

Finally, they need to better communicate with those voters who supported the president in 2024 but are not firm Republicans, such as disaffected young men and inflation-spooked Hispanics. To do that, the Democrats must find better messengers.

That last part shouldn’t be too difficult because the party actually has many promising talents who would be able to make the case for Democrats much better than the likes of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (NY), his House counterpart Hakeem Jeffries (NY), or former Vice President Kamala Harris, who recently tried a bit of a poorly conceived online reboot.

Of course, that would mean giving new voices a chance… and that is something that both the Democrats’ old guard and the party’s dominant consultant class are going to fight.

Because they resist new ideas and fresh faces almost as much as they want to resist Trump.