As Trump Bungles Another Crisis, the GOP’s Midterm Prospects Dim

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We feel two ways about the midterms. On the one hand, we are convinced that Donald Trump and the GOP will pull out all the stops to make it the least free and fair election the US has seen since the passage of the Voting Rights Act in 1965. 

On the other hand, we believe in the American people. We believe that they will (partially) rectify their past mistakes and deliver a crushing verdict on the most lawless administration in history.

Regular readers of this column know that we usually write about the former… and with good reason.

Donald Trump is dismantling democracy in a hurry*, and Republicans across the country are helping him rig the election and give themselves a chance to cling to power in the nation’s capital and block the kind of transparency and accountability that is sorely needed.

Americans should take note and prepare accordingly (more on that below).

Today, however, we want to talk about the latter.

Obviously, a lot can happen in the intervening months, so you should view this analysis through the lens of how things are now and the country’s current trajectory.

That being said, we disagree with other political commentators who are playing it safe right now — perhaps because they are worried about looking silly if a bold prediction doesn’t materialize.

That’s not our style, so here it goes: Unless the economy drastically improves and costs come down for Americans, and there is no reason to believe that it will, there is no amount of rigging Republicans can do to prevent losing the House.

It won’t even be close.

According to the professional prognosticators at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics (and we are big fans of their work), Republicans are currently favored to win 208 House seats with 15 toss-up races. Meanwhile, the Cook Political Report puts those numbers at 206 and 17.

We believe that, by election night, the GOP will be happy if it wins 200 seats out of a total of 435.

Yes, there are some things working in the Republicans’ favor. Most importantly, for the first time in many years, they enjoy a massive fundraising advantage. On paper, it is huge — more than half a billion dollars to be exact.

The Republican National Committee has almost $100 million more in the bank than its Democratic counterpart. The GOP’s House and Senate super PACs have a smaller edge, but Trump is sitting on a treasure chest of more than $300 million that he cannot spend on another race for himself.

However, the president has been extremely stingy when it comes to using money he has raised for others. After all, there may be ways for him to funnel it into his own pockets somehow. In addition, individual Democratic candidates have been able to raise massive amounts of money.

Furthermore, Republicans are likely not done gerrymandering and could yet try to put a few more seats in the “safe” column in Florida (which Democrats hope to counter in Virginia if voters there approve a new map and it’s upheld by the courts).

Not much else is going the GOP’s way.

First, while Trump, who promised to fix the economy right away and usher in a new “golden age,” maintains that things are going great and prices are falling — but the opposite is true. 

In the fourth quarter of 2025, the economy grew at a snail’s pace of 0.7 percent and it hasn’t generated a net job since April 2025.

But what really matters is that the cost of living for regular Americans hasn’t come down at all. In fact, inflation is inching up again and will surely increase more in light of the soaring gas prices that were the result of Trump’s attack on Iran.

And if it were only the cost of gasoline, then the fallout from that conflict in November might not be so bad (unless, of course, the war is still raging then, in which case Republicans will be lucky if they win 180 seats). However, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which doesn’t look as though it will be resolved any time soon, will result in higher prices on a range of goods.

One of them is fertilizer, which is needed right now during planting season. And farmers who currently have to pay a premium for it will pass those costs on to consumers after they have harvested their crops. The result will be higher food prices right around the time of the midterms.

And it’s not as though Republicans are doing anything to improve the lives of regular folks.

Most of the administration’s agenda only appeals to the rich or to hard-core MAGA supporters, but this election won’t be about “let’s give tax cuts to billionaires“ or “no men in women’s sports.” 

That explains why Trump is hemorrhaging support among Latinos, independents, and young voters, i.e., the groups that propelled him to victory in 2024.

Obviously, the president isn’t on the ballot, but he is the party now, and, perhaps more importantly, that is also a problem for the GOP.

The midterms traditionally see lower turnout, which means that only truly motivated voters show up. And today’s Republicans are only motivated when they can vote for Trump.

Therefore, Democrats currently have a massive advantage in that category. Nearly 80 percent of them say they are “absolutely certain” to vote compared to fewer than two-thirds of Republicans.

We are seeing the same thing in special elections throughout the country in which Democrats have posted win after win.

While those victories are not always predictors of Election Day success, it would be foolish to disregard them. In 2018, for example, Democrats overperformed in special elections by 10 percent. That year, they won the popular vote in the midterms by 8.6 percent and netted 40 seats in the House.

So far this year, they are overperforming in special elections by more than 13 percent!

Personally, if we were a Republican who won their district by fewer than 15 percent, we wouldn’t feel safe.

And that brings us to the Senate.

To win the upper chamber, Democrats have to pick up four seats. However, according to the Center for Politics, there are only three toss ups. The Cook Political Report has rated four races as toss ups, but only two of them are held by Republicans.

Does that mean that the GOP majority in the Senate is safe?

We don’t think so.

To be honest, we think it’s insane to rate races like Texas or Iowa as “likely Republican” in the current political climate. The GOP candidates may end up being favored to win, but it is foolish to think that they are “likely” to do so when there isn’t a poll out there showing the Republicans ahead by even five points.

And then there are races like that in South Carolina, where Sen. Lindsey Graham’s (R) seat is rated as “solid” and “safe” by our two professional prognosticators.

While that may be true if he stood for reelection in Israel or the board of any defense contractor, we would be shocked if that rating doesn’t change.

Graham is the main warmonger in the Senate and attached to Trump at the hip (well, he is actually attached elsewhere but we are a family publication).

Every time he goes on TV, which happens a lot, he provides a clip that we will see again in the fall, for example, when he says that he “will be with Israel until our dying day” or that the cost of the war is inconsequential.

If this conflict doesn’t end to the satisfaction of Americans, which is a tall order in light of how negatively they already feel about it now and how things are going, then Graham will be associated with all that disapproval.

And it’s not as though proclaiming your undying support for Israel is a political winner anymore.

In 2020, Graham won by about 10 points with Trump on the ballot. In other words, his margin of victory is in that Democratic overperformance window… and he won’t be able to ride the president’s coattails this time.

Obviously, that doesn’t mean that he is going to lose, but we believe he’ll have to at least sweat a bit. And if someone like Graham has to do that, then at least four other Republican seats not currently rated toss ups will be in play.

While our current prognosis would change a bit if Republicans managed to push their voter suppression bill through Congress, we believe that the midterms will truly be “too big to rig” for the GOP.

And in the Senate, we’d much rather be in the Democrats’ shoes right now.

That brings us to the final caveat: For our prediction to come to pass, the Dems have to nominate capable candidates who run solid campaigns. And congressional Democrats can’t screw things up. They have to demonstrate to the American people that they are laser-focused on them and their cost of living. They have to convince them that they will be a counterweight to Trump’s excesses. And they have to make sure their own voters stay excited.

If they can manage all of that (and our regular readers know that our confidence in Democratic leaders is low), then most of the ingredients are in place for an actual landslide victory in the fall.

*One recent report has the US drop from 20th to 51st in its annual democracy ranking; a survey of experts deems the US closer to an illiberal democracy than a full democracy; and a third study found that political rights and civil liberties declined rapidly in the US last year.

It is already clear that the 2026 midterms will be like any other election – with Donald Trump using all levers of the government to ensure that Republicans maintain control of Congress. This will include a massive voter suppression effort, as evidenced by the president’s efforts to get the GOP to change the rules of the Senate to pass the “SAVE America Act.”

Fortunately, every American has a vote. To ensure that yours is counted, go here to check your registration status. It only takes a few seconds.

Apart from that, we urge all Americans to get involved and make sure their family members and friends are registered as well. Democracy only works if everybody participates.