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— OPINION —
It should have been obvious that Donald Trump is not eager to debate Kamala Harris (at least not on an even footing) when, last month, he unilaterally “agreed” to meet her on Fox News next week… as long as it was entirely on his terms.
After all, she would be a more capable foe than President Joe Biden, who self-destructed his own presidential campaign in late June with an abysmal debate performance.
It’s tough to blame Trump’s campaign for not wanting their guy to go up against the vice president. Harris is just not a good matchup for him.
It was a different story with Biden. Everything about him suited Trump. The president was visibly older, had lost a few steps, and never really figured out how to convey to the American people how much of a threat Trump posed.
Therefore, scheduling debates with Biden was an easy decision. It was like an old, really dumb lion deciding to hunt a severely injured gazelle… there was a good chance of success.
The odds are no longer in Trump’s favor.
Which is why it probably suited him when Harris did not take the Fox News bait. That allowed the former president to turn a debate that was never going to happen into a telethon with MAGA super booster Sean Hannity.
The problem for Trump is that another debate had already been scheduled when he was still running against Biden. The two had agreed to meet on September 10 on ABC News… a much more neutral battlefield.
That was ok with the former president because of the aforementioned advantages.
But those only applied to Biden.
Against Harris, Trump will be the much older candidate. He will also come off as much more negative while the vice president has successfully positioned herself as the “hope and joy” candidate.
In addition, Harris has cracked the code of how to deal with Trump. She likely won’t (just) portray Trump as a true menace but also as a weird guy.
And that’s dangerous territory for the former president.
Trump’s campaign must know that any misogynistic and racist comments he makes in response to being taunted would not look good… and they certainly would not help him with key voting blocs, such as Blacks and suburban women.
That sentiment is reflected in the sticking point that is holding up negotiations over the September 10 debate: Whether or not microphones should be “hot.” The Harris campaign wants them on the entire time because it believes that Trump will not be able to control himself for 90 minutes and behave in a way that will not annoy just these voting blocs.
To be fair, the Republican’s campaign is right that the rules of the debate had already been set, and now the vice president’s team wants to change them.
However, this dispute may also be welcome news for the Trump campaign, because it may give the former president a reason to back out (at least out of the September 10 event).
“I watched ABC FAKE NEWS this morning, both lightweight reporter Jonathan Carl’s(K?) ridiculous and biased interview of Tom Cotton (who was fantastic!), and their so-called Panel of Trump Haters, and I ask, why would I do the Debate against Kamala Harris on that network?” Trump wrote on Truth Social, adding “Why did Harris turn down Fox, NBC, CBS, and even CNN? Stay tuned!!!”
The Harris campaign has actually not said that there would be no other debates, but rather that the one scheduled for next month should come first.
It certainly seems possible that the two sides will eventually agree on something. For example, Trump was complimentary of CNN after the first debate. But that was because he looked good in comparison to Biden.
It remains to be seen what Trump views as an acceptable debate. He clearly prefers one not hosted by actual journalists, but rather by Elon Musk, one of his kids, or anybody on Fox.
There is one more important reason why a debate may not happen after all. Right now, the downsides probably outweigh the upsides for both campaigns. Harris is doing just fine with scripted events, so all a debate could do is stop her momentum.
And Trump is just not a good debater.
Of course, everything could change if the dynamics of the race change. If one of the two falls too far behind, the losing candidate would have a real incentive to push for a debate that might allow them to make up lost ground.
For now, however, both sides are probably pretty content with trading accusations over who is standing in the way of a debate and why rather than having Harris and Trump actually meet.
