The Fetterman Factor — 51 Seats Won’t Be Enough for Democrats

While winning the House would be nice for Democrats eager to exercise some much-needed oversight over the most corrupt administration in US history and to get a say in which legislation is passed, securing the Senate majority would be the ultimate prize. That’s because control of the upper chamber of Congress would allow them to also reject Donald Trump’s unqualified nominees and, most importantly, judges.

Above all, they would be able to keep the president from continuing to stack the Supreme Court with right-wing justices should a spot on the court open up.

At the beginning of last year, it seemed unimaginable that the Democrats could overcome their 53-47 disadvantage in a midterm election that was supposed to be challenging for them. In fact, just to break even, they would have to defend two seats in states — Georgia and Michigan — that Trump won. And while they had a couple of achievable pickup opportunities in Maine and North Carolina, in order to win a majority, they would have to upset at least two more Republicans in solidly red states.

But things have changed a lot this year, and the fight for control of the Senate is now largely viewed as a coinflip. It is entirely possible that the Democrats will win a handful of GOP-held states (and even more if everything breaks their way in states like Iowa and Nebraska).

They will need every single one of them.

That’s because all of the handicappers and number-crunchers who are parsing the polls to figure out who may be ahead in the race for Senate control are making a crucial mistake: They are assuming that Democrats will need 51 seats to get there.

Technically, that is correct. While a 50-50 split is good enough for the GOP to prevail since Vice President JD Vance would break any ties, the Democrats need an outright majority.

In reality, however, that math is overlooking one crucial variable in the equation: Sen. John Fetterman (D-Fox News).

Now, we are not saying that he will switch parties, although, while he has stated that he would not bolt from the Democrats and join the GOP, we wouldn’t discount that possibility.

As things stand, he is hardly a favorite to win a primary when he is up for reelection in 2028 — at least not as a Democrat. In his state, Fetterman is much more popular among Republicans than Democrats, only 22 percent of whom have a favorable view of him.

And he may not want to work with someone like Abdul El-Sayed, the Democrats’ Senate candidate in Michigan, whom he accused of supporting sharia law, Iran, and Hamas,

What we are saying, however, is that a majority that relies on a guy who seems to be on Fox News daily to trash progressive Democrats, side with Trump on everything from the ballroom to data centers, and talk about his “love and devotion to Israel” is hardly on solid ground.

When the dust settles and Democrats hold a 51-49 edge, there are two scenarios: The first is that Republicans promise Fetterman the world to get him to switch (no primary challenge, plum committee assignments, his own Fox News show, Sean Hannity singing at his birthday party, etc.).

The other is that he becomes as powerful as the Senate majority leader because he will have to be given a say on every major piece of legislation, and will get to decide which nominees and justices should be confirmed.

And that’s precisely why, in order to win a real, Fetterman-proof majority, the Democrats will not only have to defend their two seats but also win the races in Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas, and Alaska to take him out of the equation — and that’s still a tall order.