Graham’s Death Poses Another Headache for Thune

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), a fiercely loyal supporter of Donald Trump and one of the few senators able to talk some sense into the president, has passed away, his office announced early Sunday morning. His death not only poses another challenge for Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) ahead of a busy month of confirming some of Trump’s nominees and passing legislation before senators head home to campaign, it also adds a new wrinkle — albeit a fairly minor one — to the fight over control of the chamber in 2027.

First things first:

Graham was a solid vote for the president’s agenda and his nominees. His passing means that the GOP’s Senate majority shrinks to 52-47 — at least until South Carolina’s Gov. Henry McMaster (R) appoints a temporary replacement.

However, since Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has gone MIA with an undisclosed illness, and nobody really knows when — or if — he will come back, it is effectively 51-47 ahead of potentially contentious confirmation fights, such as that of Todd Blanche, who is supposed to become Trump’s permanent attorney general.

Thune also hopes to quickly confirm Jay Clayton as director of national intelligence (DNI). This would then allow him to pass an extension of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA), which lapsed last month because Democrats vowed not to support the legislation as long as Bill Pulte, a Trump loyalist primarily known for abusing his authority to weaponize the levers of government against the president’s opponents.

Finally, acting Secretary of Labor Keith Sonderling is also awaiting confirmation to permanently fill that position.

But Graham was more than a reliable vote for Thune.

As one of Trump’s frequent golf buddies, he had a direct line to the president and could occasionally influence his thinking, especially on issues like helping Ukraine fight back against its Russian invaders.

In this capacity, he will be missed from Kyiv to Tel Aviv.

Graham had just returned from Ukraine, where he met with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and other leaders to discuss new ways in which the US could use sanctions against Russia to end the war.

“Lindsey was a true defender of freedom and the values that make our world safer,” Zelenskyy said on Sunday morning. “He visited Ukraine ten times during the years of Russia’s full-scale invasion and was here with our people when it was most needed. We remained in constant dialogue, and I will miss our conversations.”

The senator was also one of Israel’s staunchest supporters at a time when that position has become increasingly unpopular.

“Lindsey understood that the security of Israel and America are inseparable. He devoted his life to defending America, strengthening our alliance and standing up for the free world,” stated Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. “Israel has lost one of its greatest friends. America has lost a great patriot. I have lost a beloved friend.”

Finally, Graham’s death also impacts the fight for control of Congress.

He was up for reelection and fought off a field of challengers in last month’s primary. As an incumbent with more than $11 million cash-on-hand, he was a heavy favorite to beat Democrat Annie Andrews. That being said, a poll from her campaign conducted last month only had him up by 3 points.

Now, however, the South Carolina GOP will have to hold a special primary to choose a new candidate.

According to Palmetto State law, a filing period for potential candidates opens the second Tuesday after the death, which is July 21. Senate hopefuls will then have a week to declare their candidacy, with the special election taking place one or two weeks later (depending on how the law is interpreted).

If a runoff is needed, it will take place another two weeks after that.

In other words, if it is a crowded primary, it could be until the end of August before Republicans have their new candidate. During that time, they will not be able to focus on Andrews, who can campaign and raise money unimpeded.

While the GOP is still expected to hold the seat, the race will likely become more competitive now.